Software + Tools

Vehicle emissions, fuel use, electricity and energy consumption are affected by a range of vehicle and powertrain design factors. Forecasting therefore requires a detailed breakdown and classification of the on-road fleet. The Australian Fleet Model (AFM) is specifically designed to provide fleet data at the level of detail required for vehicle emissions and energy simulation.

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The Australian Fleet Model was first developed in 2013 with annual updates and provides detailed estimates of the on-road vehicle population and associated travel (VKT, accumulated mileage) for over 15,000 vehicle classes, including the five fundamental technologies (ICEV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV) for individual base years (e.g. 2010-2060).

 

AFM is run for individual states and territories or for Australia as a whole. The software can output the modelling results in specific predefined formats, including COPERT Australia and n0vem.

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Since 2022, AFM includes a future scenario builder option (plausible trajectories) that uses statistical optimisation and considers historic vehicle sales data and relevant theory (e.g. diffusion of innovation theory - DIT) with curve fitting flexibility to accommodate deviations from DIT.

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AFM publications can be found here.

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